Will the Bradley Effect Sink Obama?
Tom Bradley lost ten percent from the polls to the election day results.
by James Buchanan
The Bradley Effect is an election phenomenon in which the Black candidate loses as much as ten percent from his polling numbers versus what he actually gets on election day. Tom Bradley went from a nine point lead to a one percent loss in a race for governor of California in 1982. Douglas Wilder also lost ten percent from the polls to his election day results in his race for governor of Virginia.
As election day rapidly approaches, the polls have tightened considerably from just ten days ago when Obama had a huge lead over McCain. There have been some wild swings in public opinion over the last few months. McCain was leading Obama in many polls just after the Republican convention, and then Obama had a big surge in popularity as his massive campaign chest helped him saturate the airwaves with his slogans.
A few days ago, the polls tightened from a nine percent lead by Obama to just three percent. Yesterday, Zogby released a poll showing McCain ahead by one percent. Most polls however still show Obama ahead by small amounts although the Zogby poll is a one day poll, most likely to reflect the latest opinion.
If the latest Zogby poll turns out to be accurate, it’s possible that McCain doesn’t even need the Bradley Effect. In any case, it’s very bad news for Obama to be polling close to McCain just before the election with the mythical Bradley Effect hovering like a storm cloud over the Obama campaign. (more…)